Steven Grant Almeida FX research and analysis
2026-07-01 · By Steven Grant Almeida

EUR/USD Daily Research Brief - 2026-07-01

Primary bias: bearish. This report was timestamped before its outcome and will remain in the archive.

Upper trigger 1.14392 Lower trigger 1.13784 Target 1 1.13381 Invalidation 1.14187

Bias factors

-1
Price vs EMA20
Price is below EMA20
-1
EMA9 vs EMA20
Fast EMA leads lower
-1
SMA20 vs SMA50
Medium trend is defensive
-1
Ichimoku cloud
Price is below the daily cloud

Technical snapshot

Close1.14218
EMA 9 / 201.14274 / 1.14828
SMA 20 / 50 / 2001.14945 / 1.16063 / 1.16590
RSI(14)37.9
ATR(14)62.1 pips

Provider consensus

Providers monitored20
Measurable calls20
Independent calls11
Duplicates removed9

29.1% bullish · 24.7% neutral · 46.2% bearish

Accuracy-weighted consensus: bearish with 58.9% confidence.

Consensus qualification: used in final scenario.

Sources and disclosure

  • OANDA v20: EUR/USD daily and four-hour midpoint candles
  • Stooq: US Dollar Index daily history (unavailable for this run)

Educational market research only. This is not individualized investment advice or a promise of future performance.

Recorded outcome: open